Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting1-4
- Bailey FalterPitching7.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting2-4
- Shota ImanagaPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Morel singled to center, Bellinger scored, Morel to second.0–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 65%
- ML PIT +175 / CHC -210
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- CHC: Elo 63.4%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -186
- PIT +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.6 – 4.9 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +27 | PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 1.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +95 Elo | CHC 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 62.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 17th of 3012–13 | Road vs home | 13–88th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–24 | 25–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–15 | 6–12 |
| Underdog | 14–9 | 19–9 |
| Overs–unders | 23–21 | 21–24–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 6–12 CHC in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 18.