Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Jack SuwinskiBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Cubs- Mike TauchmanBatting1-4
- Jameson TaillonPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Morel hit sacrifice fly to left, Suzuki scored.3–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 33–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 5N. Gonzales singled to center, McCutchen scored and Reynolds scored, Joe to third.3–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 3Suzuki hit sacrifice fly to center, Tauchman scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Suwinski homered to right (367 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 54%
- ML PIT +110 / CHC -130
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 58.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -119
- PIT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.6 – 3.9 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −1 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +59 Elo | CHC 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 57.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.212th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 18th of 3012–14 | Road vs home | 14–87th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–24 | 25–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–15 | 6–13 |
| Underdog | 15–9 | 19–9 |
| Overs–unders | 23–22 | 21–25–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 6–13 CHC in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 19.