Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Max FriedPitching9.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting2-3
- Justin SteelePitching6.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Madrigal struck out swinging, Swanson scored on Fried wild pitch, Happ to second on wild pitch by Fried.9–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging9–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 19–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–1
- 8Harris II scored on Cuas wild pitch, Short to second on wild pitch by Cuas.9–1
- 8Harris II scored on Cuas wild pitch, Short to second on wild pitch by Cuas.9–1
- 7Olson homered to right (400 feet).8–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 17–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–1
- 7Ozuna homered to left center (394 feet), Short scored and Acuña Jr. scored.7–1
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play7–1
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 14–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 7Albies hit sacrifice fly to left, Duvall scored.4–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 7Short reached on bunt single to first, Arcia scored, Duvall to second.3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Amaya grounded out to third, Happ scored.2–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Duvall homered to center (423 feet), Harris II scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 54%
- ML ATL -130 / CHC +110
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 56.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -119
- CHC +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.4 – 4.1 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −16 | ATL: Max Fried: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +43 Elo | ATL 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 58.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 10th of 3011–10 | Road vs home | 15–98th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–22 | 26–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 19–21 | 6–14 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 20–9 |
| Overs–unders | 14–28–3 | 21–27–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 6–4 CHC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.