Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Jarred KelenicBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- AJ Smith-ShawverPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting2-4
- Ben BrownPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ozuna hit sacrifice fly to left, Duvall scored, Albies to third.3–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 8Albies singled to right, Tromp scored, Duvall to third.2–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Kelenic homered to right center (401 feet).1–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 50%
- ML ATL -110 / CHC -110
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- CHC: Elo 44.8%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- CHC -100
- ATL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.3 – 4.3 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −25 | ATL: AJ Smith-Shawver: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · CHC: Ben Brown: team allows 1.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +36 Elo | ATL 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.0 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 10th of 3012–10 | Road vs home | 15–108th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–22 | 26–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 20–21 | 6–14 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 20–10 |
| Overs–unders | 15–28–3 | 22–27–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 7–4 CHC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.