Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bellinger singled to right, Madrigal scored, Tauchman to third.6–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–7
- 9Tauchman singled to right, Swanson scored, Madrigal to second.5–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–7
- 8Nootbaar tripled to right, Donovan scored.4–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 8Donovan singled to left, Gorman scored and Carlson scored.4–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 14–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 8Carpenter singled to right, Burleson scored, Carpenter to second, Gorman to third.4–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 34–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 7Wisdom doubled to left, Busch scored, Swanson to third.4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Winn doubled to left, Gorman scored.3–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 4Busch singled to center, Hoerner scored, Busch to second.3–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 4Hoerner doubled to left, Morel scored and Tauchman scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 3Arenado singled to center, Nootbaar scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 3Goldschmidt grounded out to second, Donovan scored, Nootbaar to third.0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 51%
- ML CHC -105 / STL -115
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- STL: Elo 45.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- STL -104
- CHC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.2 – 4.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −6 | CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +32 Elo | CHC 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.925th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 13th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.925th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 16th of 3012–13 | Road vs home | 11–1217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–25 | 24–24 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–15 | 8–13 |
| Underdog | 20–10 | 16–11 |
| Overs–unders | 22–28–1 | 23–23–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 8–5 STL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.