St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Reds- Will BensonBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Herrera singled to left, Goldschmidt scored.7–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–1
- 7Winn grounded out to shortstop, Siani scored.6–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 7Gorman homered to right center (415 feet), Carlson scored.5–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Bunted Foul3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 6Benson homered to right (360 feet).3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 4Arenado homered to left (390 feet), Herrera scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 3Winn doubled to center, Donovan scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 52%
- ML STL +100 / CIN -120
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.5 pts
- CIN: Elo 57.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -109
- STL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.7 – 4.8 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +18 | STL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.88 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +54 Elo | CIN 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.111th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 20th of 3012–15 | Road vs home | 14–1516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–27 | 29–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–15 | 11–14 |
| Underdog | 16–12 | 18–11 |
| Overs–unders | 24–25–2 | 26–27–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 7–7 CIN in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.