St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Paul GoldschmidtBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Reds- Jeimer CandelarioBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 2India scored on error, Hurtubise safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Goldschmidt, Hurtubise safe at second on error.1–3
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 31–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 2Benson singled to left, Martini scored, India to third.1–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Candelario homered to right (356 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Goldschmidt homered to left (368 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 59%
- ML STL +135 / CIN -155
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- CIN: Elo 56.1%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- CIN -143
- STL +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.4 – 5.1 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | 0 | STL: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +43 Elo | CIN 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.114th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 18th of 3012–14 | Road vs home | 13–1520th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–26 | 28–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–15 | 10–14 |
| Underdog | 16–11 | 18–11 |
| Overs–unders | 24–24–2 | 26–26–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 7–6 CIN in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.