Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Rojas singled to right, Marsh scored.2–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 4Bohm singled to right, Schwarber scored, Harper to third.1–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 2Rodgers grounded into fielder's choice to third, Montero scored and Tovar scored on error, Rodgers to second, Goodman out at third.0–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 2Goodman doubled to right, Doyle scored, Montero to third.0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1McMahon homered to right center (394 feet), Rodgers scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 66%
- ML PHI -220 / COL +180
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 66.1%, market 65.8%
- Fair odds
- PHI -192
- COL +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 5.5 – 4.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1436 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +11 | PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +116 Elo | PHI 66.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 68.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 68.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 65.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.021st of 30 |
| 4th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 5.530th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.8 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 1st of 3016–7 | Road vs home | 10–1119th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–23 | 26–22 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 24–20 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 25–20 |
| Overs–unders | 26–26–1 | 28–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 9–3 COL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.