Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Giants- Heliot RamosBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Ramos singled to center, Chapman scored and Estrada scored, Soler to second.4–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–8
- 6Wisely doubled to center, Yastrzemski scored.4–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–6
- 5Bailey hit sacrifice fly to left, Flores scored.4–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 5Matos scored on error, Estrada safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Bohm, Flores safe at third on error.4–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 4Rojas singled to center, Merrifield scored.4–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 34–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 13–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 4Sosa scored on Snell wild pitch.3–3
- 4Sosa scored on Snell wild pitch.3–3
- 3Schwarber homered to right center (404 feet), Rojas scored.2–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 30–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 2Wisely singled to center, Yastrzemski scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Yastrzemski doubled to right, Bailey scored and Chapman scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 55%
- ML PHI +115 / SF -135
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.0 pts
- SF: Elo 42.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- SF -124
- PHI +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.0 – 4.5 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −9 | PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Blake Snell: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +54 Elo | PHI 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.7 | Margin | −0.420th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 1st of 3016–8 | Road vs home | 15–108th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–24 | 29–24 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 24–21 | 11–15 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 18–9 |
| Overs–unders | 26–27–1 | 28–24–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 6–4 SF in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.