San Francisco Giants at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Mike YastrzemskiBatting1-5, 3 RBI
- Jordan HicksPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Mets- Starling MarteBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Yastrzemski tripled to left, Matos scored, Estrada scored and Bailey scored.7–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 10Bailey walked, Wisely scored, Estrada to second, Matos to third.4–2
- 10Pitch 8 : Ball 44–2
- 10Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 10Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball 33–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 10Wisely singled to right, Casali scored.3–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 9Wade Jr. singled to right, McKenna scored, Wade Jr. out stretching at second.2–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 7Baty homered to right (412 feet).1–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 6Bailey singled to left, Wisely scored, Estrada to second.1–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Marte homered to left (383 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 57%
- ML SF +125 / NYM -145
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- NYM: Elo 51.2%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- NYM -133
- SF +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.4 – 4.1 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −11 | SF: Jordan Hicks: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYM: Luis Severino: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +8 Elo | NYM 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.420th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3011–16 | Road vs home | 10–1526th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–24 | 21–28 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 11–15 | 7–15 |
| Underdog | 16–9 | 14–13 |
| Overs–unders | 27–23–1 | 26–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 6–5 NYM in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.