San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Matt ChapmanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jared JonesPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Matos singled to right, Soler scored, Ramos to third.9–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–5
- 10Wisely hit sacrifice fly to center, Bailey scored, Soler to third.8–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–5
- 10Soler singled to center, Chapman scored, Bailey to second.7–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 10Bailey singled to right, Estrada scored, Chapman to third.6–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 9Wade Jr. singled to right, Matos scored.5–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 8Soler grounded out to catcher, Wade Jr. scored, Chapman to second, Estrada to third.4–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 6Chapman homered to left center (421 feet), Wade Jr. scored.3–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 5Soler singled to left, Bailey scored.1–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 4Reynolds homered to right (386 feet), Bart scored, Taylor scored and McCutchen scored.0–5
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 4McCutchen hit by pitch, Cruz scored, Taylor to second, Bart to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 51%
- ML SF -105 / PIT -115
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- PIT: Elo 54.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -104
- SF +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.7 – 3.8 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +11 | SF: Blake Snell: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Jared Jones: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +30 Elo | PIT 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.827th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.521st of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 26th of 308–16 | Road vs home | 10–1221st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–24 | 23–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 11–15 | 6–15 |
| Underdog | 13–9 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders | 24–23–1 | 24–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 6–4 PIT in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.