San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Thairo EstradaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10N. Gonzales singled to center, Taylor scored.6–7
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–7
- 9Cruz doubled to right, Bae scored, Reynolds to third.6–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 9Reynolds grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Triolo scored, McCutchen out at second, Bae to third.6–5
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 36–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 26–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–4
- 9McCutchen grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Grandal scored, Bae safe at second on fielding error by shortstop Luciano, Triolo to third.6–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 9Bae singled to right, Suwinski scored, Triolo to second, Grandal to third.6–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 8Estrada grounded out to shortstop, Luciano scored.6–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 7Chapman homered to center (414 feet).5–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Reynolds grounded into fielder's choice to second, Bae scored, McCutchen out at second.4–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 5Estrada homered to left center (397 feet), Soler scored.4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 2Triolo hit sacrifice fly to center, N. Gonzales scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 54%
- ML SF -130 / PIT +110
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- SF: Elo 51.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SF -119
- PIT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.4 – 4.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −4 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Martin Perez: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +8 Elo | SF 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.828th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.621st of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 25th of 308–15 | Road vs home | 9–1223rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–23 | 22–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–14 | 6–15 |
| Underdog | 13–9 | 16–9 |
| Overs–unders | 23–23–1 | 23–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 6–3 PIT in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.