San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Matt ChapmanBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Mason BlackPitching2.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Pirates- Joey BartBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Wisely singled to center, Luciano scored.7–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 8Flores singled to right, Soler scored.6–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 25–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 8Chapman homered to center (407 feet), Wade Jr. scored and Estrada scored.5–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 7Reynolds homered to right center (401 feet).2–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 7Ramos homered to left (409 feet).2–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 4Bart homered to center (434 feet), Joe scored, N. Gonzales scored and Triolo scored.1–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 4Soler grounded into fielder's choice to third, Estrada scored, Chapman out at second.1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1McCutchen homered to left center (395 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 62%
- ML SF +155 / PIT -185
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.0 pts
- PIT: Elo 51.4%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -166
- SF +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.2 – 4.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −6 | SF: Erik Miller: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +10 Elo | PIT 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.825th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.623rd of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 25th of 309–16 | Road vs home | 10–1321st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–24 | 23–25 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 11–15 | 6–16 |
| Underdog | 14–9 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders | 25–23–1 | 25–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 7–4 PIT in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.