San Francisco Giants at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Patrick BaileyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Christian ScottPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lindor singled to right, Stewart scored.8–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 28–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–6
- 9Yastrzemski homered to right (397 feet).8–6
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball In Play8–6
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 27–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking7–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–6
- 8Bailey homered to right center (420 feet), Wade Jr. scored, Estrada scored and Chapman scored.7–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 8Estrada doubled to center, Yastrzemski scored, Wade Jr. to third.3–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Alonso homered to left (391 feet).2–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–6
- 5Vientos homered to right center (390 feet).2–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 5Martinez homered to left center (424 feet).2–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 22–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 4Nido hit sacrifice fly to left, Marte scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4McNeil singled to center, Vientos scored, Marte to third.2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 57%
- ML SF +125 / NYM -145
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- NYM: Elo 50.5%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- NYM -133
- SF +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.4 – 4.1 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −7 | SF: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYM: Christian Scott: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +3 Elo | NYM 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.420th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 25th of 3010–16 | Road vs home | 10–1425th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–24 | 21–27 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 11–15 | 7–14 |
| Underdog | 15–9 | 14–13 |
| Overs–unders | 26–23–1 | 25–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 5–5 NYM in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.