San Francisco Giants at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Brett WiselyBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Mets- Harrison BaderBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Narváez singled to center, McNeil scored, Baty to second, Bader to third.3–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 9Bader doubled to left, Nimmo scored and Marte scored, McNeil to third.3–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 6Ramos grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Flores scored, Soler out at second.3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 3Wisely homered to right center (401 feet).2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Bader singled to right, Stewart scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Chapman scored on pickoff error by catcher Nido.1–0
- 2Chapman scored on pickoff error by catcher Nido.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 51%
- ML SF -115 / NYM -105
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- SF: Elo 49.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SF -104
- NYM +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.8 – 3.7 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −1 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +3 Elo | NYM 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.521st of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3012–16 | Road vs home | 10–1626th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–24 | 21–29 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 11–15 | 7–16 |
| Underdog | 17–9 | 14–13 |
| Overs–unders | 28–23–1 | 27–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 7–5 NYM in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.