Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-4
- Zack WheelerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Giants- Thairo EstradaBatting2-4
- Spencer HowardPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Matos hit sacrifice fly to left, Fitzgerald scored.0–1
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 63%
- ML PHI -190 / SF +160
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 59.6%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -170
- SF +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.3 – 3.2 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −13 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Erik Miller: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +67 Elo | PHI 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 62.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 62.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.511th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.6 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3016–9 | Road vs home | 16–109th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–25 | 30–24 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 24–21 | 12–15 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 18–9 |
| Overs–unders | 27–27–1 | 29–24–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 6–5 SF in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 11.