Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Giants- Heliot RamosBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ramos singled to right, Flores scored.6–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 36–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul6–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 26–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 8Harper singled to center, Stubbs scored, Sosa to third.6–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–0
- 8Schwarber singled to center, Merrifield scored, Stubbs to second.5–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 5Castellanos homered to left center (365 feet), Bohm scored.4–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pache singled to left, Castellanos scored, Stott to second.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Schwarber homered to left center (381 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 54%
- ML PHI -130 / SF +110
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- PHI: Elo 55.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -119
- SF +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.9 – 3.6 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +4 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +36 Elo | PHI 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.6 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3016–10 | Road vs home | 17–107th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–26 | 31–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 24–22 | 12–15 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 19–9 |
| Overs–unders | 27–28–1 | 29–25–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 6–6 SF in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 12.