St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting0-3, 1 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 10 K
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer TurnbullPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Harper homered to right (415 feet), Realmuto scored.1–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 3Marsh singled to center, Harper scored, Bohm to second.1–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 3Winn hit sacrifice fly to right, Gorman scored, Siani to third.1–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Castellanos doubled to center, Bohm scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 1Bohm doubled to left, Harper scored and Schwarber scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 60%
- ML STL +140 / PHI -165
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 64.4%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -149
- STL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.3 – 4.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +12 | STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +103 Elo | PHI 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.21st of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.63rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.7 | Margin | +1.62nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 16th of 3014–16 | Road vs home | 23–82nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–28 | 32–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–15 | 26–22 |
| Underdog | 18–13 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 24–28–2 | 27–30–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–8 PHI in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.