Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Jose MirandaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Miranda doubled to left, Margot scored.4–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 6Miranda homered to left center (406 feet).3–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 22–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 12–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 3Bregman homered to left center (395 feet), Tucker scored.2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Caratini homered to right center (417 feet).2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Kirilloff doubled to right, Castro scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Larnach homered to right center (413 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 58%
- ML MIN +130 / HOU -150
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 48.7%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -138
- MIN +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.4 – 4.1 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −15 | MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.77 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +9 Elo | MIN 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 9th of 3016–13 | Road vs home | 15–1618th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–31 | 23–33 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–22 | 15–27 |
| Underdog | 13–9 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 25–33 | 22–31–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 6–6 HOU in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.
- Jun 1MIN 2 @ HOU 5Picked HOU 52%Hit
- May 31MIN 6 @ HOU 1Picked HOU 51%Miss
- Oct 11HOU 3 @ MIN 2PlayoffsPicked MIN 52%Miss
- Oct 10HOU 9 @ MIN 1PlayoffsPicked MIN 53%Miss
- Oct 8MIN 6 @ HOU 2PlayoffsPicked HOU 53%Miss
- Oct 7MIN 4 @ HOU 6PlayoffsPicked HOU 53%Hit
- May 31MIN 8 @ HOU 2Picked HOU 54%Miss
- May 30MIN 1 @ HOU 5Picked HOU 53%Hit