Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Carlos CorreaBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting3-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Correa singled to right, Julien scored, Kepler to third.2–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 7Miranda singled to center, Margot scored.1–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Alvarez homered to right center (390 feet).0–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 3Tucker homered to right center (396 feet).0–4
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 30–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 2J. Abreu homered to right center (376 feet).0–3
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 30–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Alvarez homered to right (403 feet), Tucker scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 52%
- ML MIN +100 / HOU -120
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- HOU: Elo 51.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -109
- MIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.7 – 3.8 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +3 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +7 Elo | HOU 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.313th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 8th of 3016–12 | Road vs home | 14–1619th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–30 | 22–33 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–22 | 14–27 |
| Underdog | 13–8 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 25–32 | 22–30–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 6–5 HOU in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.
- May 31MIN 6 @ HOU 1Picked HOU 51%Miss
- Oct 11HOU 3 @ MIN 2PlayoffsPicked MIN 52%Miss
- Oct 10HOU 9 @ MIN 1PlayoffsPicked MIN 53%Miss
- Oct 8MIN 6 @ HOU 2PlayoffsPicked HOU 53%Miss
- Oct 7MIN 4 @ HOU 6PlayoffsPicked HOU 53%Hit
- May 31MIN 8 @ HOU 2Picked HOU 54%Miss
- May 30MIN 1 @ HOU 5Picked HOU 53%Hit
- May 29MIN 7 @ HOU 5Picked HOU 53%Miss