Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Santana homered to right center (405 feet).6–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 6Margot grounded out to shortstop, Kepler scored.5–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 5Larnach homered to right center (401 feet), Castro scored.4–1
- 5Pitch 9 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 32–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 22–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4Bregman homered to left (348 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Kirilloff hit sacrifice fly to left, Miranda scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Correa doubled to right, Castro scored, Miranda to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 51%
- ML MIN -105 / HOU -115
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 55.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -104
- MIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.7 – 3.8 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +19 | MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.94 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +39 Elo | HOU 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.411th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.113th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 9th of 3015–12 | Road vs home | 14–1518th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–30 | 22–32 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–22 | 14–26 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 25–31 | 22–29–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–5 HOU in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.
- Oct 11HOU 3 @ MIN 2PlayoffsPicked MIN 52%Miss
- Oct 10HOU 9 @ MIN 1PlayoffsPicked MIN 53%Miss
- Oct 8MIN 6 @ HOU 2PlayoffsPicked HOU 53%Miss
- Oct 7MIN 4 @ HOU 6PlayoffsPicked HOU 53%Hit
- May 31MIN 8 @ HOU 2Picked HOU 54%Miss
- May 30MIN 1 @ HOU 5Picked HOU 53%Hit
- May 29MIN 7 @ HOU 5Picked HOU 53%Miss
- Apr 9HOU 5 @ MIN 1Picked MIN 54%Miss