St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan GormanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Bryson StottBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Gorman singled to right, Winn scored.5–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 5Stott singled to left, Rojas scored and Stubbs scored, Schwarber to second.4–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 3Burleson homered to right (405 feet), Winn scored.4–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 32–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 2Rojas grounded out to shortstop, Castellanos scored, Stubbs to third.2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 2Stubbs doubled to center, Marsh scored, Castellanos to third.2–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 32–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Gorman homered to right (367 feet), Winn scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 55%
- ML STL +115 / PHI -135
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 63.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -124
- STL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.5 – 5.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −16 | STL: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +94 Elo | PHI 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 59.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.21st of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.53rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +1.72nd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 17th of 3014–17 | Road vs home | 24–81st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–29 | 33–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–15 | 27–22 |
| Underdog | 18–14 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 24–29–2 | 27–31–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–9 PHI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.