Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Dubón singled to left, Peña scored, Diaz to second.6–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 8Diaz singled to right, Alvarez scored, Peña to second.5–1
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play5–1
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 7Schanuel homered to right center (386 feet).4–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 5Alvarez homered to right (385 feet), Bregman scored.4–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Meyers singled to left, Altuve scored, Alvarez to second, Bregman thrown out at home.2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Altuve singled to left, McCormick scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 62%
- ML HOU -185 / LAA +155
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.9 pts
- HOU: Elo 51.4%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -166
- LAA +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.8 – 3.7 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +14 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +10 Elo | HOU 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 59.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.022nd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.927th of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 26th of 3010–17 | Road vs home | 10–2230th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–35 | 35–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–29 | 1–13 |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 34–15 |
| Overs–unders | 24–34–3 | 33–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 11–6 LAA in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.