St. Louis Cardinals at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Arenado homered to left (391 feet).4–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 5Cabbage homered to right center (409 feet).3–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 33–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 5Diaz homered to right (344 feet).3–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 5Burleson doubled to right, Donovan scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 5Donovan singled to right, Pagés scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 3Siani hit sacrifice fly to center, Crawford scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 57%
- ML STL +125 / HOU -145
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.4 pts
- HOU: Elo 61.5%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -133
- STL +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.9 – 4.6 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +12 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +81 Elo | HOU 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 60.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.410th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.8 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3015–19 | Road vs home | 17–1714th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–31 | 25–34 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–15 | 17–28 |
| Underdog | 19–16 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 26–30–2 | 24–32–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 1–4 HOU in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.