St. Louis Cardinals at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting3-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Caratini hit sacrifice fly to center, Meyers scored, Peña to second.5–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–8
- 7Gorman homered to right (349 feet).5–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 6Winn homered to left (365 feet), Herrera scored.4–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–7
- 4Peña hit sacrifice fly to right, Bregman scored.2–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–6
- 4Siani grounded out to second, Herrera scored, Winn to second.2–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 3Diaz homered to right (350 feet), Alvarez scored and Peña scored.1–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–6
- 3Peña doubled to right, Bregman scored, Alvarez to third.1–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 1Meyers grounded out to first, Bregman scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Alvarez grounded out to first, Altuve scored, Bregman to third.1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Burleson homered to left center (392 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 58%
- ML STL +130 / HOU -150
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 58.6%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -138
- STL +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.9 – 4.6 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +3 | STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +60 Elo | HOU 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.411th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 18th of 3015–18 | Road vs home | 16–1716th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–30 | 24–34 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–15 | 16–28 |
| Underdog | 19–15 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 25–30–2 | 23–32–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 1–3 HOU in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.