Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching9.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Angels- Kevin PillarBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8J. Abreu homered to center (401 feet).7–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 7Diaz homered to left (373 feet), Alvarez scored.6–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 7Alvarez doubled to left, Bregman scored, Cabbage scored and Altuve scored.4–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 11–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 2Pillar homered to left (411 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Diaz singled to left, Alvarez scored, Peña to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 60%
- ML HOU -165 / LAA +140
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- HOU: Elo 54.8%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- HOU -149
- LAA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.7 – 3.8 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +5 | HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +34 Elo | HOU 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 59.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.927th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.826th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 27th of 309–17 | Road vs home | 10–2130th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–35 | 35–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 17–29 | 1–13 |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 34–14 |
| Overs–unders | 24–33–3 | 33–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 10–6 LAA in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.