Milwaukee Brewers at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Andruw MonasterioBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Bryse WilsonPitching4.1 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Jake RogersBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Monasterio doubled to center, Sánchez scored.2–10
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–10
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 21–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–10
- 7Turang tripled to right, Chourio scored.1–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–10
- 5Rogers homered to right (371 feet), McKinstry scored and Ibáñez scored.0–10
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–10
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 5Ibáñez singled to center, Malloy scored, McKinstry to third.0–7
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–7
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging0–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 30–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 5McKinstry singled to left, Greene scored and Urshela scored, Malloy to second.0–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 5Urshela singled to center, Canha scored and Pérez scored, Greene to third.0–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Malloy hit sacrifice fly to right, Canha scored, Greene to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Greene doubled to center, Pérez scored, Canha to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 59%
- ML MIL +135 / DET -155
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.6 pts
- DET: Elo 46.2%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- DET -143
- MIL +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.4 – 4.1 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +21 | MIL: Bryse Wilson: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 1.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +26 Elo | MIL 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.216th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 7th of 3020–16 | Road vs home | 14–1722nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–27 | 29–35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–17 | 7–22 |
| Underdog | 24–10 | 22–13 |
| Overs–unders | 36–28 | 37–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 3–2 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.