Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Justyn-Henry MalloyBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mason EnglertPitching3.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Rangers- Josh SmithBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose UrenaPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lowe singled to center, Duran scored, Smith to second.1–9
- 8Pitch 10 : Ball In Play1–9
- 8Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 8Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball 31–8
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 21–8
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–8
- 8Smith grounded into fielder's choice to first, Semien scored on error, Duran safe at second on throwing error by first baseman Canha.1–8
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–8
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 31–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 8Duran singled to center, Taveras scored, Semien to second.1–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 6Smith singled to center, Semien scored, Duran to second.1–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 6Heim scored on error, Duran safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Keith, Semien safe at third on error.1–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Malloy homered to left center (413 feet).1–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 30–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 3Heim homered to right (386 feet), Lowe scored.0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Smith homered to right (345 feet).0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Seager singled to left, Jankowski scored, Semien to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 58%
- ML DET +130 / TEX -150
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- TEX: Elo 55.6%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- TEX -138
- DET +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.9 – 4.6 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −11 | DET: Kenta Maeda: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jose Urena: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +39 Elo | TEX 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 9th of 3017–15 | Road vs home | 14–1518th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–33 | 25–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–21 | 12–25 |
| Underdog | 21–12 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders | 34–27 | 22–38–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 6–7 TEX in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 13.