Texas Rangers at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Robbie GrossmanBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Marlins- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting1-4
- Ryan WeathersPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 9Langford singled to left, García scored and Grossman scored, Lowe to second.7–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–0
- 7Grossman singled to center, Semien scored.5–0
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–0
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 4Knizner hit sacrifice fly to right, Smith scored.4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Smith singled to right, Langford scored on throwing error by right fielder J. Sánchez, Smith to second.3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3García hit sacrifice fly to right, Seager scored, Grossman to third.2–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Grossman doubled to left, Knizner scored, Seager to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 52%
- ML TEX +100 / MIA -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- MIA: Elo 48.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -109
- TEX +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.7 – 3.8 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +13 | TEX: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +10 Elo | TEX 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.827th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 13th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.228th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 21st of 3013–17 | Road vs home | 11–1928th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–34 | 24–34 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 11–23 | 1–15 |
| Underdog | 12–11 | 23–19 |
| Overs–unders | 22–34–1 | 32–25–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 3–1 MIA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.