Texas Rangers at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Josh SmithBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jonathan HernandezPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Jesus SanchezBatting3-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sixto SanchezPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 8Burger reached on infield single to second, Anderson scored, Chisholm Jr. to second, Lopez to third.2–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 7J. Sánchez homered to center (417 feet), Burger scored and Bell scored.2–7
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–7
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 22–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 12–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 5Langford grounded out to third, Taveras scored, Lowe to second.2–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 4Smith homered to center (395 feet).1–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 3Gordon grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Burger scored, Rivera out at second, J. Sánchez to third.0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Bell hit sacrifice fly to center, Chisholm Jr. scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 30–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 2Gordon homered to center (396 feet), J. Sánchez scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 57%
- ML TEX -145 / MIA +125
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- TEX: Elo 53.8%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- TEX -133
- MIA +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.6 – 3.9 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +1 | TEX: Jose Urena: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIA: Sixto Sanchez: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +27 Elo | TEX 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.728th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.028th of 30 |
| 13th of 300.0 | Margin | −1.328th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 19th of 3013–16 | Road vs home | 10–1928th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–33 | 23–34 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–22 | 1–15 |
| Underdog | 12–11 | 22–19 |
| Overs–unders | 21–34–1 | 31–25–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 3–0 MIA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.