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Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast

Final

Away

Diamondbacks

25-29

2–4

at

Home

Rangers

26-29

ARI 46%TEX 54%

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Globe Life Field

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.

TEX75%50%75%ARIStart1234567Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Diamondbacks
  • Christian WalkerBatting2-4
  • Brandon PfaadtPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Rangers
  • Corey SeagerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
  • Nathan EovaldiPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K

Scoring summary

  • 5Seager homered to right center (388 feet), Heim scored and Semien scored.2–4
  • 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
  • 3Smith singled to center, Jankowski scored, Seager to third.2–1
  • 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
  • 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
  • 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
  • 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
  • 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
  • 2Suárez hit sacrifice fly to first, Smith scored, McCarthy to third.2–0
  • 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
  • 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
  • 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
  • 2Smith doubled to left, Walker scored.1–0
  • 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
  • 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
  • 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Rangers 54%

Toss-upHit
ARI 46%TEX 54%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.

Market
TEX 54%
ML ARI +110 / TEX -130
Pre-line forecast
TEX 54%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
TEX 58%
Ratings vs. market
+3.6 pts
TEX: Elo 57.9%, market 54.3%
Fair odds
TEX -119
ARI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
ARI 4.1 – 4.4 TEX
Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorARITEXWhy
Team rating14991515Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers0+20ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 1.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsTEX +55 EloTEX 57.9%
Market-implied ratingsTEX 53.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastTEX 53.8%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastTEX 54.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.

Try another venue →
Arizona Diamondbacks and Texas Rangers compared, with each team's league rank
ARIStatTEX
8th of 304.6Runs scored4.413th of 30
20th of 304.6Runs allowed4.518th of 30
12th of 30+0.1Margin−0.117th of 30
14th of 305–5Last 103–726th of 30
16th of 3012–13Road vs home12–1318th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

DiamondbacksRangers
145015001550league averageAprJulOctJanAprJul

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonARITEX
Run line24–2921–33
Last 103–73–7
Favorite9–169–22
Underdog15–1312–11
Overs–unders24–28–121–32–1
Overs–unders, last 105–52–8

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

ARI 4–5 TEX in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.