Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dane DunningPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Carroll singled to left, Moreno scored, Newman to second.1–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 8Langford singled to left, García scored, Taveras to second.0–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 8Lowe hit sacrifice fly to left, Smith scored.0–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 5Seager homered to right (364 feet), Duran scored.0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Lowe grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, García scored, Taveras out at second.0–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Heim doubled to left, Langford scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 55%
- ML ARI +115 / TEX -135
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- TEX: Elo 57.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -124
- ARI +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.0 – 4.5 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | 0 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.80 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Dane Dunning: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +53 Elo | TEX 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.412th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 13th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 18th of 3012–14 | Road vs home | 13–1314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–30 | 22–33 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–16 | 10–22 |
| Underdog | 15–14 | 12–11 |
| Overs–unders | 24–29–1 | 21–33–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 4–6 TEX in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.
- May 28ARI 2 @ TEX 4Picked TEX 54%Hit
- Nov 1TEX 5 @ ARI 0PlayoffsPicked ARI 51%Miss
- Oct 31TEX 11 @ ARI 7PlayoffsPicked ARI 51%Miss
- Oct 30TEX 3 @ ARI 1PlayoffsPicked ARI 51%Miss
- Oct 28ARI 9 @ TEX 1PlayoffsPicked TEX 54%Miss
- Oct 27ARI 5 @ TEX 6PlayoffsPicked TEX 54%Hit
- Aug 22TEX 3 @ ARI 6Picked ARI 50%Hit
- Aug 21TEX 3 @ ARI 4Picked TEX 50%Miss