Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Wenceel PerezBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Casey MizePitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Kelly doubled to center, Báez scored.8–4
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–4
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball 27–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 17–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–4
- 10Báez singled to left, Canha scored and Ibáñez scored.7–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 10Ibáñez doubled to left, Pérez scored, Canha to third.5–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 8Devers homered to center (408 feet).4–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 34–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 7Canha grounded out to shortstop, Greene scored, Pérez to third.4–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 7Pérez doubled to center, Vierling scored, Greene to third.3–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 6Urshela hit sacrifice fly to center, Pérez scored.2–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 5Wild pitch by pitcher Brayan Bello. Gio Urshela scores. Akil Baddoo to 2nd.1–3
- 5Urshela scored on Bello wild pitch, Baddoo to second on wild pitch by Bello.1–3
- 3Devers tripled to right, Smith scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 60%
- ML DET +140 / BOS -160
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 55.8%, market 59.6%
- Fair odds
- BOS -148
- DET +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.3 – 5.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −8 | DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +40 Elo | BOS 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 59.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.99th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 12th of 3014–15 | Road vs home | 13–1622nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–33 | 26–33 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–21 | 8–22 |
| Underdog | 18–12 | 18–11 |
| Overs–unders | 33–25 | 23–34–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–7 BOS in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.