Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Gio UrshelaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Reese OlsonPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Red Sox- Enmanuel ValdezBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Cooper CriswellPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Urshela homered to left (395 feet), Greene scored.3–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 23–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 7Devers singled to left, Duran scored on error, Devers safe at second on throwing error by left fielder Greene, Abreu safe at third on error.1–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–6
- 6Valdez homered to right (318 feet), Smith scored.1–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 4McGuire hit sacrifice fly to left, Valdez scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 3Smith grounded into fielder's choice to second, Duran scored, Abreu out at second.1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Valdez homered to right center (399 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball 31–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Greene singled to right, Vierling scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 51%
- ML DET -105 / BOS -115
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- BOS: Elo 52.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -104
- DET +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.2 – 4.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −4 | DET: Reese Olson: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Cooper Criswell: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +20 Elo | BOS 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.314th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.99th of 30 |
| 12th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 11th of 3014–14 | Road vs home | 12–1625th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–32 | 25–33 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–21 | 7–22 |
| Underdog | 18–11 | 18–11 |
| Overs–unders | 32–25 | 22–34–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–6 BOS in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.