Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Colt KeithBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kenta MaedaPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Ceddanne RafaelaBatting2-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Keith homered to right center (385 feet), Vierling scored.3–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 6Rafaela homered to left center (375 feet), Hamilton scored.1–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 5Refsnyder doubled to left, Wong scored.1–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Rafaela homered to left (359 feet), Smith scored and Grissom scored.1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Smith doubled to left, Devers scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Urshela singled to right, Greene scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 61%
- ML DET +145 / BOS -170
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 54.6%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- BOS -154
- DET +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.8 – 4.7 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +4 | DET: Kenta Maeda: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +32 Elo | BOS 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 57.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.99th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.39th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 11th of 3014–13 | Road vs home | 11–1626th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–31 | 24–33 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–21 | 6–22 |
| Underdog | 18–10 | 18–11 |
| Overs–unders | 31–25 | 21–34–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–5 BOS in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.