Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Connor JoeBatting1-3
- Jared JonesPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Tigers- Matt VierlingBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6Rogers singled to center, Báez scored.0–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–8
- 5Urshela singled to right, Greene scored, Canha to third.0–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 5Vierling homered to left (373 feet), Rogers scored and Pérez scored.0–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Keith grounded into fielder's choice to second, Greene scored, Urshela out at second.0–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Canha hit sacrifice fly to right, Vierling scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Vierling singled to center, Pérez scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 58%
- ML PIT +130 / DET -150
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- DET: Elo 56.3%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- DET -138
- PIT +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.9 – 3.6 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +12 | PIT: Jared Jones: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +44 Elo | DET 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 59.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.5 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 14th of 3013–14 | Road vs home | 13–1418th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–27 | 23–30 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–17 | 6–21 |
| Underdog | 19–10 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders | 28–24 | 29–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–3 DET in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.