Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Jarred KelenicBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Reynaldo LopezPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Reynolds singled to center, Bae scored, McCutchen to third.1–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Olivares hit sacrifice fly to left, N. Gonzales scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4N. Gonzales doubled to right, Cruz scored on error, N. Gonzales safe at third on fielding error by right fielder Acuña Jr..1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 4Kelenic singled to right, Olson scored, Harris II to second.1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Bae singled to center, Triolo scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 59%
- ML ATL -155 / PIT +135
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- ATL: Elo 59.0%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- ATL -143
- PIT +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.6 – 3.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +7 | ATL: Reynaldo Lopez: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +63 Elo | ATL 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.022nd of 30 |
| 6th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.521st of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 10th of 3013–11 | Road vs home | 11–1422nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–23 | 24–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 20–22 | 6–17 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 18–9 |
| Overs–unders | 16–29–3 | 27–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 4–4 PIT in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.