Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ray KerrPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Nick GonzalesBatting2-3, 4 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching7.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8d'Arnaud doubled to right, Olson scored and Ozuna scored.5–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–11
- 8Acuña Jr. homered to center (397 feet), Harris II scored and Short scored.3–11
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–11
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 20–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–11
- 7Taylor hit sacrifice fly to right, Williams scored.0–11
- 7Pitch 9 : Ball In Play0–11
- 7Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–10
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–10
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–11
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–10
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 20–11
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 10–11
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–11
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–11
- 6N. Gonzales doubled to right, Joe scored and Olivares scored.0–10
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–10
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 20–10
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–10
- 6Olivares singled to left, McCutchen scored, Olivares to second, Joe to third.0–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–7
- 5Triolo homered to left center (408 feet), N. Gonzales scored.0–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 3Grandal doubled to right, Cruz scored and Olivares scored.0–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 3Olivares singled to center, Joe scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 62%
- ML ATL -185 / PIT +155
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- ATL: Elo 58.9%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -166
- PIT +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.3 – 4.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | 0 | ATL: Ray Kerr (no track record yet) · PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +63 Elo | ATL 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 59.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.925th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −0.623rd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 9th of 3013–10 | Road vs home | 10–1422nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–22 | 23–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 20–21 | 6–17 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders | 15–29–3 | 26–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 4–3 PIT in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.