Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting1-1, 1 RBI
- Alek ManoahPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Colt KeithBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kenta MaedaPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kirk singled to center, Kiner-Falefa scored, Schneider to third.2–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–6
- 9Schneider singled to center, Clement scored, Kiner-Falefa to third.1–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 10–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–6
- 5Carpenter homered to right center (410 feet), Canha scored.0–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
- 4McKinstry grounded out to second, Carpenter scored, Keith to second, Vierling to third.0–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 4Keith hit by pitch, Canha scored, Vierling to second, Carpenter to third.0–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 4Vierling hit sacrifice fly, Greene scored, Vierling to first on fielding error by center fielder Kiermaier, Carpenter to second, Canha to third.0–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Keith homered to right center (400 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 52%
- ML TOR -120 / DET +100
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- TOR: Elo 50.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -109
- DET +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.3 – 4.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −10 | TOR: Alek Manoah: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · DET: Kenta Maeda: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +6 Elo | TOR 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.216th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3011–14 | Road vs home | 10–1422nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–25 | 21–29 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 14–14 | 6–20 |
| Underdog | 10–11 | 15–9 |
| Overs–unders | 21–27–1 | 28–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 5–2 DET in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.