Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Danny MendickBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Justin TurnerBatting1-3
- Yusei KikuchiPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Mendick doubled to center, Fletcher scored and DeJong scored.5–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Julks singled to left, Vaughn scored and Jiménez scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Lopez singled to left, Lee scored, Lopez to second.1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 64%
- ML CHW +165 / TOR -195
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- TOR: Elo 61.4%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- TOR -175
- CHW +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 2.6 – 3.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1423 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | 0 | CHW: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.87 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +81 Elo | TOR 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 61.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 302.8 | Runs scored | 3.828th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.2 | Margin | −0.925th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 30th of 304–20 | Road vs home | 11–1112th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–26 | 22–24 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–0 | 13–13 |
| Underdog | 19–26 | 9–11 |
| Overs–unders | 21–26–1 | 19–26–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 0–7 TOR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.