Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Paul DeJongBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- Danny JansenBatting3-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Jansen singled to left, Springer scored and Varsho scored, Kiermaier to third.3–9
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–9
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 33–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 7Jansen homered to left (377 feet), Schneider scored.3–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 7DeJong homered to right center (402 feet).3–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 6Bichette doubled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored.2–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 4DeJong singled to center, Sheets scored.2–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 3Guerrero Jr. singled to right, Jansen scored.1–4
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 31–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 3Jansen doubled to right, Kiermaier scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Varsho homered to right center (398 feet), Bichette scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Lee singled to center, DeJong scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 64%
- ML CHW +170 / TOR -205
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- TOR: Elo 62.1%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- TOR -181
- CHW +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.1 – 4.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1425 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +21 | +13 | CHW: Erick Fedde: team allows 1.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +86 Elo | TOR 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 66.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 65.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 302.8 | Runs scored | 3.629th of 30 |
| 27th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.1 | Margin | −1.025th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 30th of 304–19 | Road vs home | 10–1117th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–25 | 21–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–0 | 12–13 |
| Underdog | 19–25 | 9–11 |
| Overs–unders | 20–26–1 | 18–26–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 0–6 TOR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.