Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Tigers- Wenceel PerezBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Guerrero Jr. homered to center (423 feet), Jansen scored.9–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 17–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–1
- 9Jansen doubled to left, Kiermaier scored.7–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 26–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 17–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–1
- 8Springer hit sacrifice fly to right, Bichette scored.6–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 8Turner singled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored, Bichette to third.5–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 8Bichette singled to left, Jansen scored, Guerrero Jr. to third.4–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Varsho homered to right center (387 feet), Biggio scored.3–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 6Pérez singled to center, Báez scored, Kelly thrown out at home.1–1
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 31–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Kiner-Falefa homered to left.1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 51%
- ML TOR -105 / DET -115
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- DET: Elo 49.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -104
- TOR +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.7 – 3.8 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −14 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +5 Elo | TOR 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.119th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 3010–14 | Road vs home | 10–1321st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–25 | 21–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 14–14 | 6–19 |
| Underdog | 9–11 | 15–9 |
| Overs–unders | 20–27–1 | 27–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 4–2 DET in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.