Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Tommy PhamBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick NastriniPitching3.1 IP, 8 ER, 0 K
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8DeJong hit sacrifice fly to left, Lopez scored.2–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–9
- 8Pham homered to right center (393 feet).1–9
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–9
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 30–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 20–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–9
- 4Bichette singled to center, Varsho scored and Guerrero Jr. scored on throwing error by center fielder Fletcher, Bichette to second.0–9
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–9
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 2Bichette homered to center (413 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored.0–7
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–7
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 2Guerrero Jr. singled to left, Varsho scored.0–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 2Varsho tripled to right, Kiermaier scored and Schneider scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 2Schneider singled to left, Kirk scored and Turner scored, Kiermaier to third.0–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 68%
- ML CHW +200 / TOR -240
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 62.3%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- TOR -212
- CHW +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.4 – 5.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1426 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −6 | CHW: Nick Nastrini: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +87 Elo | TOR 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 66.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 65.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 302.9 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 27th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.0 | Margin | −1.026th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 30th of 305–20 | Road vs home | 11–1217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–26 | 22–25 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–0 | 13–14 |
| Underdog | 20–26 | 9–11 |
| Overs–unders | 21–27–1 | 19–27–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 1–7 TOR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.