Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 0 K
Tigers- Matt VierlingBatting4-6, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Casey MizePitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9Vierling homered to left center (409 feet), Torkelson scored and Carpenter scored.11–14
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play11–14
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 311–11
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking11–11
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 211–11
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 111–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–11
- 8Canha singled to right, Vierling scored and Keith scored.11–11
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play11–11
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging11–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking11–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 211–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 111–9
- 8Varsho homered to right (379 feet), Bichette scored and Kiermaier scored.11–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging8–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–9
- 8Bichette singled to center, Schneider scored and Jansen scored.8–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–9
- 7Kiner-Falefa homered to left center (373 feet).6–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–9
- 6Vierling homered to left (363 feet).5–9
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 25–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–8
- 6Guerrero Jr. singled to center, Biggio scored, Jansen to second.5–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–8
- 6Schneider hit sacrifice fly to left, Kiner-Falefa scored.4–8
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–8
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 33–8
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 23–8
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–8
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 54%
- ML TOR -130 / DET +110
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- TOR: Elo 50.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -119
- DET +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.4 – 4.1 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −7 | TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +2 Elo | TOR 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.114th of 30 |
| 15th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–615th of 30 |
| 24th of 3011–16 | Road vs home | 12–1420th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–26 | 22–30 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 14–15 | 6–21 |
| Underdog | 11–11 | 16–9 |
| Overs–unders | 21–29–1 | 28–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 5–4 DET in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.