Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris SalePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Pirates- Connor JoeBatting2-3
- Martin PerezPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9d'Arnaud hit sacrifice fly to center, Albies scored.8–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 27–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 9Albies singled to right, Kelenic scored.7–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 27–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 8Duvall homered to left center (428 feet).6–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 8Olson homered to right (420 feet).5–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 5Olson doubled to right, Albies scored and Kelenic scored.4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 4Arcia hit sacrifice fly to left, d'Arnaud scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 3Albies doubled to right, Kelenic scored, Albies thrown out at third.1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Grandal singled to left, Olivares scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 68%
- ML ATL -240 / PIT +200
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 61.1%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -212
- PIT +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.6 – 2.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −7 | ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Martin Perez: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +78 Elo | ATL 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 62.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.022nd of 30 |
| 6th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 11th of 3013–12 | Road vs home | 12–1422nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–24 | 25–26 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 20–23 | 6–17 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 19–9 |
| Overs–unders | 16–30–3 | 27–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 4–5 PIT in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.