Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Red Sox- Rob RefsnyderBatting1-4
- Nick PivettaPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Urshela homered to left center (383 feet).5–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 8Greene homered to left center (353 feet), Vierling scored.4–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Canha singled to center, Kelly scored, Greene to second.2–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 5Baddoo homered to left center (399 feet).1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 51%
- ML DET -105 / BOS -115
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 58.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -104
- DET +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.2 – 3.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | +9 | DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.84 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +57 Elo | BOS 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.99th of 30 |
| 13th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 11th of 3013–13 | Road vs home | 11–1525th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–31 | 24–32 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–21 | 6–21 |
| Underdog | 17–10 | 18–11 |
| Overs–unders | 31–24 | 21–33–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–5 BOS in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.