Milwaukee Brewers at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Red Sox- Ceddanne RafaelaBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rafaela singled to left, Devers scored, Smith to second.6–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–2
- 8Turang homered to right center (391 feet).6–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 7Rafaela singled to right, Abreu scored.5–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–1
- 7Abreu doubled to right, Devers scored.5–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 3Ortiz doubled to center, Frelick scored and Sánchez scored.5–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Frelick singled to left, Bauers scored, Sánchez to second.3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Sánchez singled to left, Adames scored, Bauers to third.2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Bauers singled to center, Yelich scored, Adames to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 58%
- ML MIL +130 / BOS -150
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 49.6%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- BOS -138
- MIL +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.4 – 5.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +13 | MIL: Jared Koenig: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · BOS: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +3 Elo | MIL 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.87th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.79th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 8th of 3017–12 | Road vs home | 10–1425th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–22 | 23–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–14 | 6–19 |
| Underdog | 19–8 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders | 29–21 | 19–30–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 2–2 BOS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.