Milwaukee Brewers at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Tobias MyersPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting3-4
- Tanner HouckPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Duran singled to left, Rafaela scored.1–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Contreras singled to center, Dunn scored, Turang to third.1–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 4Devers hit sacrifice fly to right, Abreu scored.0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 56%
- ML MIL +120 / BOS -140
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 49.7%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -128
- MIL +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.0 – 4.5 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | 0 | MIL: Tobias Myers: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +2 Elo | MIL 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.412th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.88th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 6th of 3018–12 | Road vs home | 10–1525th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–22 | 23–29 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–14 | 6–20 |
| Underdog | 20–8 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders | 29–22 | 19–31–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 3–2 BOS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.