Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Rob RefsnyderBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Orioles- Jordan WestburgBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Refsnyder homered to left center (419 feet), Rafaela scored.8–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–3
- 9González hit sacrifice fly to center, Hamilton scored, Rafaela to third.6–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 8Wong singled to right, Devers scored.5–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 14–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 2Devers reached on infield single to shortstop, Duran scored, Refsnyder to third.4–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 23–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 13–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 2Duran doubled to center, Rafaela scored.3–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 1Westburg singled to right, Cowser scored and O'Hearn scored, Santander to third.2–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 1Cowser reached on infield single to second, Henderson scored, O'Hearn to second.2–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Devers singled to center, Refsnyder scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Abreu homered to right (371 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 61%
- ML BOS +150 / BAL -175
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- BAL: Elo 60.4%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- BAL -159
- BOS +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.7 – 4.8 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −8 | BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +73 Elo | BAL 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 61.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 9th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.76th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +1.34th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 7th of 3016–12 | Road vs home | 18–106th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–31 | 28–24 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–21 | 20–22 |
| Underdog | 17–10 | 8–2 |
| Overs–unders | 20–32–2 | 28–22–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 6–11 BAL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 17.