Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris FlexenPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rutschman singled to left, O'Hearn scored and Santander scored, Rutschman to second.6–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 34–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 7Vaughn homered to right center (413 feet).4–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5DeJong singled to center, Pham scored and Vaughn scored.4–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 5Vaughn doubled to left, Lopez scored, Pham to third.4–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 14–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 5Mountcastle hit a ground rule double, Westburg scored, O'Hearn to third.4–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 5Henderson homered to left center (411 feet), McCann scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Westburg doubled to center, Henderson scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 69%
- ML BAL -265 / CHW +210
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- BAL: Elo 68.3%, market 69.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -225
- CHW +225 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.6 – 2.9 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1423 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −26 | BAL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Chris Flexen: team allows 1.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +134 Elo | BAL 68.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 72.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 71.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 69.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 2.930th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −2.130th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3013–8 | Road vs home | 10–1526th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–23 | 24–27 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–21 | 3–0 |
| Underdog | 8–2 | 21–27 |
| Overs–unders | 26–20–2 | 23–27–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 5–2 CHW in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.